The Dynasty Value Index: Quarterbacks | December 2017

Understanding and projecting player value is a key factor in dynasty fantasy football. Keeping ahead of a player’s constantly fluctuating value, whether the shift is positive or negative, can promote rapid team improvement and success. Included below are the biggest risers and fallers in Dynasty Trade Value (DTV) over the last month at the quarterback position. Additionally, it includes brief analysis on what prompted the changes in value, as well as some brief thoughts on what to expect from each quarterback moving forward. Unless otherwise specified, all DTVs are based on a 12-team PPR league format.

Jared Goff is at the helm of the leading offense in the NFL. The Los Angeles Rams are averaging 30.1 points per game, tied with the Philadelphia Eagles. Goff’s value is rising at a rapid pace. He started the year very low (DTV 5.5) as a result of playing 2016 in a less innovative offensive scheme. The arrival of Sean McVay, as well as weapons Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and Sammy Watkins has revived the original hope for the 2016 number one overall NFL Draft selection. The disappointing 2016 set his value so low, though it is now recovering and putting him in a value range with Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota. The Rams offense is young and balanced and led by an innovative offensive coaching mind. Goff is quickly on his way to joining his draft mate, Carson Wentz, as a leader of a top scoring offense as well as a top-tier fantasy quarterback.

Russell Wilson is showcasing his usual late-season excellence. Wilson has been averaging 30.5 fantasy points over his last seven games after averaging 22.9 in his first five. Wilson has returned to the top tier of quarterbacks in DTV, trailing only Aaron Rodgers and Carson Wentz. After a few low scoring games during those first five weeks, Wilson has rebounded and is currently on pace to have his best fantasy scoring season, averaging 27.3 points per game. Seattle’s rushing game is one of the worst in the NFL without Wilson. In addition to his passing performance, Wilson is also Seattle’s leading rusher and has been averaging 47.6 yards per game over his last five games.

Aaron Rodgers was previously in this series as a faller. That was in reaction to his injury. Loss of production and injury will always result in a value dip but return from injury, and favorable statistical output will often trigger a value rise. Rodgers has not yet returned but is on pace to and all signs of him playing again soon appear positive. The Packers designated him as their player eligible to return from injured reserve, and he will be eligible to return Week 15, just in time to help owners that were able to traverse the injury and stay in the fantasy championship hunt. Rodgers remains as the highest valued quarterback with a DTV of 19.3. A return to the field and standard Rodgers’ results should keep him there.

Andrew Luck remains on the list of biggest fallers. His injury has taken away the entire 2017 season of production. Beyond that though, there is still uncertainty about the nature of the injury. Luck has traveled to Europe for therapy, not a sign that things are progressing as expected. The lack of clarity on the recovery from injury can cause concern among Luck owners. Missing 2017 is difficult, but the thought of missing more is something that could lead to nervous owners moving on to a quarterback with fewer unknowns.

Dak Prescott was previously on this list as a riser, but with injuries to the Dallas Cowboys offensive line and the suspension of Ezekiel Elliott has led to Prescott being under heavy pressure and has resulted in much lower production. Over his last six games, Prescott has averaged 15 fantasy points and has had three games in single digit production. Single-digit fantasy point production did not occur in 2016 in a meaningful game. Prescott’s floor seemed safe, but the recent output has shown otherwise. Dallas is at a low point. The offensive line will recover, and Elliott will return to the field. Prescott’s safe floor and high upside should return at that time.

Marcus Mariota’s drop cannot be attributed to injury or loss of weapons. Corey Davis has returned from injury. Mariota may have been battling injury in Week 6 when he did not have a single rushing yard. Mariota needs to be able to utilize his rushing ability to provide his safe fantasy point floor and the upside that comes with rushing touchdowns, but since that week six game, Mariota has averaged only 3.5 rushing attempts for 16 yards per game. Mariota threw nine interceptions in 2016 but has thrown eight in his last five games. The Titans have been winning but not on the arm or legs of Mariota. The Titans have had a very conservative game plan. Mariota’s DTV was based on the expectation that he would make a jump into the top tier of quarterback producers, but he currently sits at 22nd on the 2017 fantasy quarterback leaderboard. That type of production has brought his value back down to a mid-tier dynasty quarterback, presently right alongside Goff, but the quarterbacks are traveling in different directions.

By | 2018-01-08T22:11:15+00:00 December 7th, 2017|
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