Buying or selling a player at the right time is a key component to winning in dynasty fantasy football. I prefer to buy before a player’s ascension and sell before their descent. I mean, who doesn’t? But I will also target players who I believe will experience a short-lived drop in value that will be followed-up with a quick ascent. Conversely, I often try to sell players that experience a sharp ascent if I expect the increase in value to be temporary. I operate in the peaks and valleys of dynasty–buy in the valley, sell at the peak.
RB Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams
[March DTV: 48.3 | Current DTV: 44.7]
Todd Gurley hit a high point after being the player who helped win fantasy championships across the country last season. But as rookie draft season approaches and fantasy hobbyists begin to salivate over a new class of running backs, even top-tier running backs like Gurley become a year older, a year closer to the dreaded age of 30. That previous season production that raked in championship-caliber fantasy points is now simply viewed as workload; mileage or wear and tear. Gurley will be 24 years old when the 2018 NFL season kicks off. Yes, he has had a major workload, but that is exactly what fantasy players crave. Gurley’s role in the Rams offense is not changing. He will continue to be the bellcow running back and will be involved in the passing game. The Rams improved their defense immensely, so if there is a shift in the offensive philosophy towards a less aggressive attack, Gurley will benefit from that. He is not cheap to acquire, but right now those that have him do have time to plan. As the season approaches, Gurley will be more expensive or, when the season starts, be not for sale since lineup fluctuations become more challenging to accommodate. Buy now on Gurley and pay what it takes.
WR Geronimo Allison, Green Bay Packers
[March DTV: 1.3 | Current DTV: 1.3]
While Geronimo Allison’s value hasn’t changed, I expect it to climb soon. The Packers have cut ties with Aaron Rodgers’ long-time favorite receiver, Jordy Nelson. Rodgers will be returning in 2018, and while Davante Adams is the obvious heir apparent, there are still targets left to go around. Jimmy Graham was brought in and will command some of those targets. Randall Cobb remains a Packer, and while he is also worth a discounted buy, Allison is a much cheaper investment. Allison has an open path to becoming the number two option on a very potent offense. The Packers also have not added any receivers via free agency. While they could add one or more through the Draft, they have not drafted once in the first round since Nelson in 2008, and have only drafted only three in the top three rounds since; Cobb and Adams in the second and Ty Montgomery in the third. Investing in a cheap Allison now is a smart move to consider since a promotion in the offense will yield immediate profit. Should the Packers choose 2018 as the year to invest another high draft pick in a wide receiver, Allison’s worst outcome is that of a very low cost or possibly waiver wire gamble.
TE Adam Shaheen, Chicago Bears
[January DTV: 2.8 | Current DTV: 2.5]
The Bears have finally fired John Fox and hired up-and-coming coach Matt Nagy in January. When this was going down, there were visions of Adam Shaheen becoming Travis Kelce. Shaheen became a hot commodity in the dynasty community but then free agency happened, and the Bears signed Trey Burton (DTV: 5.4), decreasing Shaheen’s value as a result. The Bears also brought in Allen Robinson (DTV: 29.3), who could become a target hog, and still had Tarik Cohen (DTV: 6.3) out of the backfield to catch passes. Shaheen becomes the cheapest option to get a piece of the Bears offense which is likely to open up more this year. He currently appears to be the fourth receiving option in Chicago but could certainly make the jump in the Bears passing attack, at which point he will no longer be half the cost of Burton.